Elections in eastern Germany on Sunday could galvanize the Alternative for Germany, an ascendant far-right party, or spur a backlash.
Just two weeks after the far-right Alternative for Germany party, or AfD, scored a stunning victory in the small eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, German voters in two other regions are voting on Sunday and will deliver a new gauge of the AfD’s national prospects.
Voters in Berlin and in a lightly populated coastal corner of the former East Germany, Mecklenburg-West Pomerania, will elect new state Parliaments on Sunday. The AfD is poised to gain significantly in both elections, even if polls suggest it will fall well short of its performance in Saxony-Anhalt, where it won 44 percent of the vote and could soon form a government.
The AfD’s leaders have used Nazi slogans and played down the significance of the Holocaust, and German intelligence has classified the party as a “suspected extremist” group. Yet it has harnessed voter anxiety over the economy and immigration, as well as the widespread unpopularity of Chancellor Friedrich Merz, a mainstream conservative.
But surveys in the waning days of the campaign suggest Sunday’s vote could yet result in a backlash to the AfD’s rise. After leading in Mecklenburg-West Pomerania throughout the year, the AfD has now fallen into a virtual tie with the center-left Social Democrats.
In liberal Berlin, the AfD looks set to finish behind both Mr. Merz’s center-right Christian Democrats and the far-left party Die Linke.
Polls close at 6 p.m. in both areas. Here’s what to know.
What’s driving the AfD’s rise?
Much of what fueled the AfD’s victory in Saxony-Anhalt is also present in Mecklenburg-West Pomerania, a state of 1.5 million residents. Unemployment there is higher than the national average, as in Saxony-Anhalt. Residents still resent how eastern Germany struggled after the reunification of Germany in 1990. And many are sympathetic to Russia and wary of immigration, which surged in Germany during the European migration a decade ago.
Goldie Nickel, a young voter in the city of Neubrandenburg, said this past week that she supported the AfD because she felt the government wasn’t tough enough on immigrants.
“Migrants and refugees that either break the law or misbehave should be sent back to their home countries,” she said.
Will the AfD surprise again?
The AfD is only a co-favorite in Mecklenburg-West Pomerania because the state has a rarity for eastern Germany today: a popular leader from a mainstream party.
Manuela Schwesig, a Social Democrat, has governed the state since 2017 and has campaigned vigorously to keep her job. She has at times distanced herself from her national party leaders, who are the junior partners in Mr. Merz’s federal coalition government, and built an independent brand with voters.
As the state premier, Ms. Schwesig has said clearly what she intends to do — and follows through on those promises, said Bettina Müller, also of Neubrandenburg. Her vote for the Social Democrats on Sunday, she said, would be for Ms. Schwesig personally.
The Social Democrats may be bolstered by center-right voters who hope to deny the AfD first place, said William Thay, the president of Le Millénaire, a French think tank tracking the race. “In Mecklenburg, we believe we have strategic voters,” he said. “They will vote against the AfD.”
Will a socialist campaign carry Berlin?
In Germany’s capital, the far-left Die Linke party is surging after a campaign dominated by the price and scarcity of urban housing.
Die Linke has campaigned on an initiative to take public ownership of 270,000 apartments owned by private real estate giants, in a bid to make housing more plentiful and affordable. “We want an end to speculation with our homes,” said Elif Eralp, the party’s mayoral candidate, on her Instagram.
Pre-election polls show Die Linke could win the election, in what would be a first for Berlin. Die Linke supporters see parallels between Ms. Eralp, born in Munich to two left-wing activists from Turkey, and Zohran Mamdani, the leftist mayor of New York.
Yet even if Die Linke comes first, it could struggle to form a coalition government. The Social Democrats and the center-left Greens may decide to partner with the Christian Democrats, who are Die Linke’s closest rivals in the race.
The AfD is projected to come in third in Berlin, a result that would keep it from joining the city’s coalition government because the other parties consider it extremist.
Will the results buoy Merz, or sink him?
Bad results for the Christian Democrats in both elections could further imperil the unpopular chancellor, particularly in Mecklenburg-West Pomerania, which is being more closely watched. Many in his party blamed Mr. Merz for the size of the AfD win in Saxony-Anhalt.
Mr. Merz’s party is polling in single digits in Mecklenburg-West Pomerania. If it fails to reach the 5 percent threshold for representation in the state Parliament, it would notch a postwar low for the party and amplify calls in Berlin for Mr. Merz to step aside.
The odds of that scenario are low, Mr. Thay said, but not impossible.
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